Flora vs Kuressaare
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-16 · 18:00 CET
LWWLW
LLDLWThe score model makes a Flora win the most likely outcome at 78%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 66.7% vs 55.6% implied (+11.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Flora 2.44 – 0.64 Kuressaare.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flora win | 77.9% | 70.6% | +7.3% |
| Draw | 13.8% | 18.0% | -4.1% |
| Kuressaare win | 8.3% | 11.5% | -3.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | 64.3% | -4.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.0% | 43.9% | -6.9% |
| Both teams to score | 42.3% | 52.4% | -10.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 44.4% | -11.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Flora 47.2 / Kuressaare 49.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.