Flora vs Kuressaare
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-16 · 18:00 CET
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DWLLDThe score model made a Flora win the most likely outcome at 78%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Flora 2.45 – 0.64 Kuressaare.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flora win | 78.0% | 68.5% | +9.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 13.6% | 18.6% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Kuressaare win | 8.5% | 12.8% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.6% | 64.6% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.2% | 44.5% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.4% | 54.6% | -12.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 44.7% | -11.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Flora 47 / Kuressaare 48.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.