Sutton vs Boston Utd
National League, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
LLWWL
LLWWLThe score model makes a Sutton win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 72.2% vs 67.0% implied (+5.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sutton 1.49 – 1.18 Boston Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton win | 44.4% | 46.2% | -1.9% |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.8% | -1.2% |
| Boston Utd win | 30.0% | 26.9% | +3.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.8% | 53.6% | -3.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.8% | 33.0% | -5.2% |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | 57.0% | -3.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.9% | 36.6% | -2.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Sutton 52.6 / Boston Utd 52.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sutton vs Boston Utd in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.