Solihull Moors vs Altrincham
National League, England · 2026-11-21 · 13:30 CET
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WWDLLThe score model makes a Solihull Moors win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 69.8% vs 61.2% implied (+8.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Solihull Moors 1.41 – 1.36 Altrincham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solihull Moors win | 38.5% | 33.6% | +4.9% |
| Draw | 25.4% | 25.4% | -0.0% |
| Altrincham win | 36.1% | 41.0% | -4.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | 59.2% | -6.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.2% | 38.8% | -8.6% |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | 62.4% | -6.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 40.8% | -4.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Solihull Moors 60.7 / Altrincham 60.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Solihull Moors vs Altrincham in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.