Kidderminster vs AFC Fylde
National League, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
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WLWWWThe score model makes a Kidderminster win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 78.0% vs 62.5% implied (+15.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kidderminster 1.29 – 1.11 AFC Fylde.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kidderminster win | 40.7% | 34.5% | +6.2% |
| Draw | 27.6% | 26.5% | +1.0% |
| AFC Fylde win | 31.8% | 39.0% | -7.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.9% | 58.0% | -15.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.0% | 37.5% | -15.5% |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 61.5% | -13.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.2% | 40.2% | -11.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Kidderminster 21.4 / AFC Fylde 34 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kidderminster vs AFC Fylde in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.