Gateshead vs Hartlepool
National League, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
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WWLLDThe score model makes a Hartlepool win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Gateshead win — 36.8% vs 24.8% implied (+12.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gateshead 1.37 – 1.39 Hartlepool.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gateshead win | 36.8% | 24.8% | +12.1% |
| Draw | 25.4% | 24.4% | +1.1% |
| Hartlepool win | 37.7% | 50.9% | -13.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 56.1% | -3.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 35.1% | -5.1% |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 57.5% | -1.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.3% | 38.5% | -0.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Gateshead 60 / Hartlepool 58.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gateshead vs Hartlepool in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.