Aldershot vs Scunthorpe
National League, England · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
LLLWL
LLLLDThe score model makes an Aldershot win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Aldershot win — 43.9% vs 35.3% implied (+8.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aldershot 1.65 – 1.38 Scunthorpe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aldershot win | 43.9% | 35.3% | +8.6% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 26.0% | -2.1% |
| Scunthorpe win | 32.1% | 38.6% | -6.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 60.7% | -2.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 40.3% | -4.4% |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | 63.6% | -3.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 42.1% | -4.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Aldershot 60.9 / Scunthorpe 41 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Aldershot vs Scunthorpe in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.