Hornchurch vs Eastleigh
National League, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
LWLWL
LWLDLThe score model makes a Hornchurch win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 73.0% vs 66.4% implied (+6.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hornchurch 1.46 – 1.17 Eastleigh.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hornchurch win | 44.0% | 45.3% | -1.3% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.4% | -0.6% |
| Eastleigh win | 30.1% | 28.2% | +1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% | 54.0% | -5.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.0% | 33.6% | -6.6% |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | 57.5% | -4.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.4% | 36.5% | -6.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hornchurch 11.4 / Eastleigh 60.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.