Forest Green vs Hartlepool
National League, England · 2026-10-10 · 18:30 CET
WDLDD
LLLLLThe score model makes a Forest Green win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 72.8% vs 61.2% implied (+11.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Forest Green 1.75 – 0.89 Hartlepool.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green win | 57.6% | 56.5% | +1.2% |
| Draw | 23.4% | 23.0% | +0.4% |
| Hartlepool win | 19.0% | 20.5% | -1.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 59.3% | -10.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 38.8% | -11.6% |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | 58.2% | -9.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.0% | 41.0% | -11.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Forest Green 50.4 / Hartlepool 58 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.