FC Halifax vs Gateshead
National League, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
DLDWW
LLLLLThe score model made an FC Halifax win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 4:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Halifax 1.82 – 0.98 Gateshead.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Halifax win | 57.0% | 67.5% | -10.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.8% | 19.8% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Gateshead win | 20.2% | 12.7% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 57.7% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.8% | 36.7% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 49.9% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.5% | 39.9% | -4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Halifax 60.2 / Gateshead 60.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.