Carlisle vs Kidderminster
National League, England · 2026-10-10 · 13:30 CET
LLWWD
DLLDDThe score model made a Carlisle win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Carlisle 1.62 – 0.93 Kidderminster.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle win | 53.6% | 62.2% | -8.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 21.4% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Kidderminster win | 21.6% | 16.4% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 59.1% | -12.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.4% | 38.7% | -13.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | 55.1% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.7% | 40.7% | +2.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Carlisle 37.7 / Kidderminster 17.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.