Altrincham vs Aldershot
National League, England · 2026-10-10 · 13:30 CET
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LWLLLThe score model made an Altrincham win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Altrincham 1.79 – 1.30 Aldershot.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altrincham win | 48.9% | 49.5% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 25.1% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Aldershot win | 28.0% | 25.5% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.9% | 59.6% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.5% | 39.2% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | 60.9% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.8% | 40.4% | +9.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Altrincham 60.3 / Aldershot 60.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.