AFC Fylde vs Scunthorpe
National League, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
WLWLL
WLLWLThe score model makes an AFC Fylde win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Scunthorpe win — 36.5% vs 25.4% implied (+11.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AFC Fylde 1.66 – 1.57 Scunthorpe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Fylde win | 40.2% | 52.2% | -11.9% |
| Draw | 23.3% | 22.5% | +0.8% |
| Scunthorpe win | 36.5% | 25.4% | +11.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% | 65.4% | -2.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.4% | 45.7% | -5.4% |
| Both teams to score | 64.1% | 64.9% | -0.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.5% | 45.5% | -3.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AFC Fylde 31.5 / Scunthorpe 40.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.