AFC Fylde vs Scunthorpe
National League, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
LWLWW
LLLLLThe score model made an AFC Fylde win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AFC Fylde 1.66 – 1.57 Scunthorpe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Fylde win | 40.2% | 52.5% | -12.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 22.1% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Scunthorpe win | 36.5% | 25.3% | +11.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% | 70.8% | -8.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.3% | 50.5% | -10.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 64.0% | 68.5% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.5% | 48.7% | -7.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AFC Fylde 31.2 / Scunthorpe 40.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open AFC Fylde vs Scunthorpe in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.