Gateshead vs Worthing
National League, England · 2026-10-03 · 16:00 CET
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WWWDWThe score model made a Worthing win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gateshead 1.44 – 1.98 Worthing.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gateshead win | 28.1% | 14.3% | +13.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.8% | 18.7% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Worthing win | 50.1% | 66.9% | -16.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.3% | 64.6% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.5% | 44.2% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.7% | 56.1% | +9.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.0% | 44.3% | -0.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gateshead 60.4 / Worthing 10.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.