Barrow vs Wealdstone
National League, England · 2026-10-03 · 16:00 CET
LWWWW
LLWDLThe score model made a Barrow win the most likely outcome at 57%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Barrow 1.96 – 1.13 Wealdstone.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow win | 56.8% | 53.0% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.8% | 24.5% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Wealdstone win | 21.5% | 22.5% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | 56.7% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.3% | 36.2% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | 57.4% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.1% | 38.8% | -11.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Barrow 10.4 / Wealdstone 60 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.