FC Halifax vs Hartlepool
National League, England · 2026-09-01 · 20:45 CET
WDLDW
LLLLLThe score model made an FC Halifax win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Halifax 1.46 – 1.03 Hartlepool.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Halifax win | 46.7% | 36.7% | +10.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 27.1% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Hartlepool win | 26.4% | 36.2% | -9.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.5% | 52.7% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.1% | 32.2% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 56.9% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.6% | 36.0% | -10.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Halifax 57 / Hartlepool 53.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.