Yeovil vs Tamworth
National League, England · 2026-08-31 · 16:00 CET
DWWDW
LWLWWThe score model made a Yeovil win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Yeovil 1.38 – 1.27 Tamworth.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yeovil win | 39.3% | 44.5% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 26.3% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Tamworth win | 34.3% | 29.2% | +5.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | 56.5% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.6% | 35.8% | -8.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% | 59.3% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 38.4% | -6.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Yeovil 50.1 / Tamworth 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.