Woking vs Southend
National League, England · 2026-08-31 · 16:00 CET
DDWLW
WWLDWThe score model made a Southend win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Woking 1.09 – 1.26 Southend.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woking win | 31.5% | 27.9% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 27.1% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Southend win | 40.1% | 44.9% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.7% | 53.1% | -11.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.0% | 32.4% | -11.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.7% | 56.7% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.5% | 36.3% | -10.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Woking 57.3 / Southend 59 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.