Sutton vs Wealdstone
National League, England · 2026-08-31 · 16:00 CET
WDDLD
LLWDLThe score model made a Sutton win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sutton 1.63 – 1.29 Wealdstone.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton win | 45.1% | 49.8% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 25.5% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Wealdstone win | 30.3% | 24.7% | +5.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 54.5% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.6% | 33.6% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | 56.5% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 37.2% | -0.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sutton 47 / Wealdstone 57 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.