Solihull Moors vs AFC Fylde
National League, England · 2026-08-31 · 16:00 CET
LWLLL
LLDWLThe score model makes a Solihull Moors win the most likely outcome at 52%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 64%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Solihull Moors 1.96 – 1.35 AFC Fylde.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solihull Moors win | 51.6% | — | — |
| Draw | 22.4% | — | — |
| AFC Fylde win | 26.0% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.2% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 63.9% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.2% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Solihull Moors 57.1 / AFC Fylde 24.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.