Forest Green vs Altrincham
National League, England · 2026-08-31 · 16:00 CET
WDLDD
WWWWLThe score model made a Forest Green win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Forest Green 1.73 – 1.01 Altrincham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green win | 54.2% | 59.5% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 21.6% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Altrincham win | 21.7% | 18.8% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | 63.2% | -11.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.5% | 42.6% | -13.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% | 60.2% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.4% | 43.2% | -3.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Forest Green 46.8 / Altrincham 57.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.