Eastleigh vs Aldershot
National League, England · 2026-08-31 · 16:00 CET
LWLDL
DLWLLThe score model made an Eastleigh win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eastleigh 1.76 – 1.48 Aldershot.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastleigh win | 44.2% | 40.9% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 26.2% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Aldershot win | 32.5% | 32.9% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | 56.7% | +6.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.8% | 35.8% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 64.2% | 60.2% | +4.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.9% | 38.7% | +3.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Eastleigh 57.2 / Aldershot 57.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.