Carlisle vs Scunthorpe
National League, England · 2026-08-31 · 16:00 CET
DLLWW
WLLWLThe score model made a Carlisle win the most likely outcome at 56%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 4:2 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Carlisle 2.03 – 1.20 Scunthorpe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle win | 56.5% | 54.6% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.6% | 24.1% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Scunthorpe win | 21.9% | 21.4% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% | 57.7% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.3% | 36.9% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | 57.6% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.7% | 39.7% | +6.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Carlisle 32.4 / Scunthorpe 37 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.