Wealdstone vs Carlisle
National League, England · 2026-08-28 · 20:45 CET
DLDLL
WWLDWThe score model makes an Carlisle win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Carlisle win — 53.1% vs 44.5% implied (+8.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wealdstone 1.25 – 1.94 Carlisle.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wealdstone win | 24.3% | 29.9% | -5.6% |
| Draw | 22.6% | 25.6% | -3.0% |
| Carlisle win | 53.1% | 44.5% | +8.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | 55.6% | +6.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.5% | 35.1% | +4.5% |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | 58.6% | +2.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.7% | 37.7% | +5.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wealdstone 56.9 / Carlisle 31.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.