Scunthorpe vs Solihull Moors
National League, England · 2026-08-28 · 20:45 CET
WLLWL
WLLWLThe score model made a Scunthorpe win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Scunthorpe 1.86 – 1.31 Solihull Moors.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scunthorpe win | 50.1% | 53.1% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 24.0% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Solihull Moors win | 26.7% | 22.9% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.4% | 59.6% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.1% | 38.8% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 62.0% | 59.4% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.3% | 40.7% | -1.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Scunthorpe 36.3 / Solihull Moors 56.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.