Gateshead vs Sutton
National League, England · 2026-08-28 · 20:45 CET
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WDDLDThe score model made a Gateshead win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gateshead 1.64 – 1.39 Sutton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gateshead win | 43.0% | 34.8% | +8.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 27.2% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Sutton win | 32.4% | 38.1% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 54.8% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.0% | 34.0% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | 58.7% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.1% | 37.2% | +3.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gateshead 56.8 / Sutton 46.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.