Gateshead vs Sutton
National League, England · 2026-08-28 · 20:45 CET
LLLWL
LLWWWThe score model makes a Gateshead win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Gateshead win — 43.0% vs 35.1% implied (+7.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gateshead 1.64 – 1.39 Sutton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gateshead win | 43.0% | 35.1% | +7.9% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 26.9% | -2.4% |
| Sutton win | 32.4% | 38.0% | -5.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 56.7% | +1.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 36.3% | -0.4% |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | 60.4% | +0.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.1% | 38.4% | +2.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gateshead 57.3 / Sutton 46.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.