Altrincham vs FC Halifax
National League, England · 2026-08-28 · 20:45 CET
WWLLL
LWLLWThe score model makes a Altrincham win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 74.7% vs 67.3% implied (+7.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Altrincham 1.32 – 1.23 FC Halifax.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Altrincham win | 38.6% | 39.7% | -1.2% |
| Draw | 27.3% | 27.0% | +0.3% |
| FC Halifax win | 34.1% | 33.3% | +0.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 53.2% | -6.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.3% | 32.7% | -7.4% |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | 57.3% | -5.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 36.3% | -3.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Altrincham 57.1 / FC Halifax 57 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.