Altrincham vs FC Halifax
National League, England · 2026-08-28 · 20:45 CET
WWWWL
WDLDWThe score model made an Altrincham win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Altrincham 1.32 – 1.23 FC Halifax.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altrincham win | 38.5% | 38.7% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 27.1% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| FC Halifax win | 34.2% | 34.2% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 53.2% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.3% | 32.5% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | 57.6% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.7% | 36.7% | -3.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Altrincham 56.6 / FC Halifax 56.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.