AFC Fylde vs Forest Green
National League, England · 2026-08-28 · 20:45 CET
LLDWL
LWWWLThe score model makes an Forest Green win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Forest Green win — 52.6% vs 41.6% implied (+11.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AFC Fylde 1.22 – 1.88 Forest Green.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Fylde win | 24.4% | 33.2% | -8.8% |
| Draw | 23.1% | 25.2% | -2.1% |
| Forest Green win | 52.6% | 41.6% | +11.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | 61.9% | -2.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.4% | 41.3% | -3.9% |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 63.8% | -4.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.6% | 42.1% | -1.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AFC Fylde 24.8 / Forest Green 46.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.