Boreham Wood vs Boston Utd
National League, England · 2026-08-27 · 20:45 CET
WWDWW
WWLWWThe score model makes a Boreham Wood win the most likely outcome at 58%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 62.9% vs 59.0% implied (+3.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Boreham Wood 2.01 – 1.09 Boston Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boreham Wood win | 58.3% | 58.7% | -0.4% |
| Draw | 21.8% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| Boston Utd win | 19.9% | 18.8% | +1.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | 59.7% | +0.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% | 39.5% | -1.9% |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 57.3% | +0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.1% | 41.0% | -3.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Boreham Wood 42.6 / Boston Utd 46.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.