Torquay vs Slough
National League South, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
WWDLW
LWLDLThe score model made a Torquay win the most likely outcome at 66%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 72%). It finished 5:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Torquay 2.52 – 1.22 Slough.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torquay win | 65.9% | 70.8% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 17.2% | 16.7% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Slough win | 17.0% | 12.5% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.2% | 73.2% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.5% | 54.2% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 64.7% | 61.8% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 52.2% | 51.4% | +0.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Torquay 57.6 / Slough 59.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.