Hampton & Richmond vs Ebbsfleet
National League South, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
LWDLL
WDWWWThe score model made an Ebbsfleet win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hampton & Richmond 1.04 – 1.71 Ebbsfleet.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hampton & Richmond win | 23.4% | 21.7% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 23.7% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Ebbsfleet win | 53.4% | 54.6% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 54.8% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% | 34.5% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | 54.8% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 38.7% | -7.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hampton & Richmond 59.7 / Ebbsfleet 36.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.