Braintree vs Truro
National League South, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
WWWLL
WWDLWThe score model makes a Truro win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Braintree 1.15 – 1.52 Truro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braintree win | 29.0% | — | — |
| Draw | 24.8% | — | — |
| Truro win | 46.2% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.8% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.8% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.8% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Braintree 18.8 / Truro 29.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.