Weston-super-Mare vs Chelmsford
National League South, England · 2026-08-31 · 16:00 CET
LLWWL
DDDDDThe score model made a Weston-super-Mare win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Weston-super-Mare 1.35 – 1.07 Chelmsford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weston-super-Mare win | 43.6% | 37.2% | +6.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 28.5% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Chelmsford win | 30.0% | 34.3% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.6% | 46.6% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.6% | 26.8% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 52.3% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.0% | 32.8% | -8.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Weston-super-Mare 34.8 / Chelmsford 56.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.