Maidenhead vs AFC Totton
National League South, England · 2026-08-31 · 16:00 CET
WWLDW
WWLLLThe score model made a Maidenhead win the most likely outcome at 62%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Maidenhead 1.70 – 0.71 AFC Totton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maidenhead win | 61.6% | 56.1% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.8% | 24.0% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| AFC Totton win | 15.6% | 19.9% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.5% | 54.6% | -11.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.5% | 34.2% | -11.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.3% | 54.3% | -13.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 37.5% | -1.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Maidenhead 34.6 / AFC Totton 32.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.