Dorking vs Truro
National League South, England · 2026-08-31 · 16:00 CET
DDDDW
WDLWDThe score model made a Dorking win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dorking 1.39 – 1.24 Truro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorking win | 40.9% | 43.2% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 25.4% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Truro win | 33.8% | 31.4% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 57.3% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.1% | 37.1% | -9.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 60.5% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.2% | 39.5% | -13.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dorking 49.1 / Truro 24.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.