Chesham vs Dover
National League South, England · 2026-08-31 · 16:00 CET
LLLWL
LLWWWThe score model made a Chesham win the most likely outcome at 57%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chesham 1.92 – 1.09 Dover.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesham win | 56.9% | 58.3% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.4% | 22.8% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Dover win | 21.7% | 18.9% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | 59.2% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.5% | 38.9% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | 57.4% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 40.9% | -7.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chesham 47.7 / Dover 43.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.