Braintree vs Farnborough
National League South, England · 2026-08-31 · 16:00 CET
WWLLL
LLLLDThe score model made a Braintree win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Braintree 1.84 – 1.52 Farnborough.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braintree win | 45.7% | 33.9% | +11.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.9% | 25.9% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Farnborough win | 32.4% | 40.2% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.2% | 58.4% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.2% | 37.9% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.3% | 61.8% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.8% | 41.1% | +6.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Braintree 14 / Farnborough 56.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.