Dover vs Braintree
National League South, England · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
LLWWW
WWLLLThe score model made a Dover win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 3:3 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dover 1.44 – 1.36 Braintree.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dover win | 39.7% | 43.6% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.5% | 25.8% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Braintree win | 35.8% | 30.6% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 56.4% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.8% | 35.9% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | 58.9% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 38.4% | -6.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dover 42.8 / Braintree 13 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.