AFC Totton vs Chesham
National League South, England · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
WWLLL
LLLWLThe score model made a Chesham win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AFC Totton 1.36 – 1.46 Chesham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Totton win | 35.6% | 32.4% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 26.8% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Chesham win | 40.1% | 40.8% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 55.8% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% | 35.9% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | 59.6% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 38.5% | -0.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AFC Totton 32.1 / Chesham 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.