Maidenhead vs Farnborough
National League South, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
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LLLLDThe score model made a Maidenhead win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Maidenhead 1.79 – 0.88 Farnborough.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maidenhead win | 59.3% | 48.3% | +10.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 25.2% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| Farnborough win | 18.6% | 26.4% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.1% | 55.6% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.1% | 35.2% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 57.3% | -8.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.9% | 37.9% | -1.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Maidenhead 33.2 / Farnborough 56.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.