Dorking vs Maidstone
National League South, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
DDDDW
WWWLLThe score model made a Dorking win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dorking 1.42 – 1.22 Maidstone.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorking win | 42.2% | 42.4% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 26.4% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Maidstone win | 32.7% | 31.3% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 56.3% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% | 35.3% | -7.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 59.3% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 38.3% | -7.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dorking 47.9 / Maidstone 52.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.