Merthyr Town vs Hebburn Town
National League North, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
DDLLD
DLLDDThe score model makes a Merthyr Town win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Merthyr Town win — 51.0% vs 42.9% implied (+8.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Merthyr Town 1.83 – 1.26 Hebburn Town.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Town win | 51.0% | 42.9% | +8.2% |
| Draw | 22.1% | 24.4% | -2.2% |
| Hebburn Town win | 26.8% | 32.8% | -6.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | 62.8% | -3.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.4% | 42.6% | -5.2% |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 64.6% | -4.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.2% | 43.2% | -1.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Merthyr Town 39 / Hebburn Town 12.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Merthyr Town vs Hebburn Town in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.