Chorley vs Hereford
National League North, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
WWLWL
DLWLLThe score model makes a Chorley win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Chorley win — 42.9% vs 35.1% implied (+7.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chorley 1.51 – 1.29 Hereford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chorley win | 42.9% | 35.1% | +7.9% |
| Draw | 24.3% | 26.1% | -1.9% |
| Hereford win | 32.9% | 38.8% | -6.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 55.5% | -2.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.9% | 35.2% | -4.3% |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 59.4% | -3.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.2% | 39.0% | -1.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Chorley 59.5 / Hereford 60.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Chorley vs Hereford in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.