Macclesfield vs South Shields
National League North, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
LDDWW
WLWLLThe score model made a Macclesfield win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 4:3 (HT 2:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Macclesfield 1.54 – 1.38 South Shields.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macclesfield win | 41.4% | 45.4% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 24.8% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| South Shields win | 34.3% | 29.8% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% | 60.5% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.4% | 40.1% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.5% | 62.5% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.9% | 41.5% | -6.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Macclesfield 37.9 / South Shields 58.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.