King’s Lynn vs Buxton
National League North, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
WWLWW
WLWWLThe score model makes a Buxton win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: King’s Lynn 1.39 – 1.41 Buxton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| King’s Lynn win | 37.0% | — | — |
| Draw | 24.9% | — | — |
| Buxton win | 38.0% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.8% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.8% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: King’s Lynn 59.2 / Buxton 61.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.