Chorley vs AFC Telford
National League North, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
DLWLW
LWWDLThe score model makes a Chorley win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chorley 1.68 – 1.29 AFC Telford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chorley win | 46.9% | — | — |
| Draw | 23.6% | — | — |
| AFC Telford win | 29.5% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.5% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.7% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chorley 59.2 / AFC Telford 39 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.