Chester vs Bedford
National League North, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
WLWLW
DLWWLThe score model made a Chester win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chester 1.72 – 1.00 Bedford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester win | 54.5% | 58.8% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 22.7% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Bedford win | 22.1% | 18.5% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 56.1% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.1% | 35.4% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% | 53.8% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.6% | 38.3% | +2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chester 59.9 / Bedford 35.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Chester vs Bedford in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.