Brackley Town vs Spennymoor
National League North, England · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
LLDWW
LLDDLThe score model made a Brackley Town win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brackley Town 1.59 – 1.07 Spennymoor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brackley Town win | 49.6% | 45.3% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 26.5% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Spennymoor win | 25.7% | 28.2% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.8% | 53.4% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.9% | 33.4% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | 57.0% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.7% | 36.5% | +2.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brackley Town 32.9 / Spennymoor 59.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.