Worksop vs Oxford City
National League North, England · 2026-08-31 · 16:00 CET
LWLWL
WWLWDThe score model made a Worksop win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Worksop 1.56 – 1.34 Oxford City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worksop win | 42.6% | 36.5% | +6.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 27.6% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Oxford City win | 32.8% | 35.8% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | 53.5% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.9% | 33.5% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.2% | 57.8% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.2% | 36.8% | -0.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Worksop 33.5 / Oxford City 48.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.