Radcliffe vs Darlington
National League North, England · 2026-08-31 · 16:00 CET
LLWLL
WLLLDThe score model made a Darlington win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Radcliffe 1.59 – 1.67 Darlington.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radcliffe win | 36.8% | 37.0% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 25.8% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Darlington win | 40.1% | 37.2% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | 59.9% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.1% | 39.5% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 64.6% | 62.8% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.1% | 41.2% | -1.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Radcliffe 49.1 / Darlington 58.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.