King’s Lynn vs Scarborough
National League North, England · 2026-08-31 · 16:00 CET
WWLWW
LLDDDThe score model made a Scarborough win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: King’s Lynn 1.18 – 1.20 Scarborough.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| King’s Lynn win | 35.5% | 35.1% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.8% | 28.1% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Scarborough win | 36.8% | 36.8% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.5% | 51.9% | -9.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.7% | 31.2% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | 56.7% | -8.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.8% | 35.3% | -9.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: King’s Lynn 58.5 / Scarborough 59.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.